Why am I hearing so much about noncitizen voting lately?
And: Will Nebraska change how its electoral votes are allocated?
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Why am I hearing so much about noncitizen voting?
On April 12, former President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson held an event at Mar-a-Lago to announce plans for legislation to prevent noncitizens from voting in federal elections, even though noncitizens cannot vote in any federal election. Throughout 2024, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and influential accounts have used their online platforms to promote misleading statements suggesting widespread noncitizen voting, though evidence shows this is not the case. Despite some cities allowing noncitizen voting in local elections, federal law restricts voting in congressional and presidential elections to American citizens only.
The misconception that noncitizens influence federal elections has existed for over a century, but in 2024, this false idea gained renewed attention due to increased migration at the southern border. Prominent right-wing figures, including Cleta Mitchell, a former adviser to Donald Trump, and Trump himself, propagated these baseless claims. Despite numerous studies confirming that noncitizens rarely vote in federal elections, these claims continued to gain traction, fueled by concerns about immigration and distrust in elections. Some states have sought to require proof of citizenship for voter registration, despite no recent evidence supporting the claim of widespread noncitizen voting.
Can noncitizens register to vote?
Claims circulating on social media suggest a significant increase in voter registrations without photo IDs in key swing states, implying undocumented immigrants are registering to vote. This assertion is false; election officials in Arizona, Texas, and Pennsylvania have confirmed that the shared information is incorrect and that actual voter registrations are much lower than claimed.
The posts misinterpret data from the Social Security Administration's Help America Vote Verification system, which tracks requests for identity verification by states for voter registrations. Only U.S. citizens can vote in federal elections, and illegal non-citizen voting is rare due to processes in place to prevent it. Despite this, misleading claims continue to spread, undermining confidence in the election process.
A Facebook post identified by Politifact claimed to show evidence of voter fraud by stating that many people in 43 states are registering to vote without IDs, referencing data from the Social Security Administration. However, the data in question tracks state requests to verify partial Social Security numbers, not voter registrations without IDs. States use this system to verify voter information, which can include driver's license numbers or Social Security numbers. Election officials and experts have clarified that this data does not indicate increases in people registering without IDs or noncitizen voting. Politifact rated this claim false due to its misrepresentation of the data and the misleading interpretation of voter registration processes.
How does Nebraska allocate its electoral college votes?
Nebraska, along with Maine, employs the Congressional District Method to distribute its electoral votes, deviating from the winner-take-all approach that most states use. Under this method, electoral votes are allocated based on both the number of House seats and Senate seats in the state, with each congressional district receiving one electoral vote. The candidate who wins each congressional district is awarded its corresponding electoral vote, while the statewide winner receives the remaining two electoral votes.
Although this method has been in use in Nebraska since 1996, instances of a split in electoral votes have been rare, with statewide winners typically securing all of the state's electoral votes. However, exceptions occurred in 2008 when Barack Obama won one electoral vote from Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, and in 2016 when Donald Trump secured one electoral vote from Maine's 2nd congressional district.
Former President Donald Trump and Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen are pushing for changes to Nebraska's electoral college system, advocating for a switch from the current method of allocating electoral votes by congressional district to a winner-take-all approach. This proposed change is driven by Republicans' desire to ensure that all of Nebraska's electoral votes consistently align with the statewide winner of the presidential vote, which typically favors Republican candidates in the state (Lyndon B. Johnson was the last Democrat to win the state.
Despite efforts to expedite the legislative process and garner support for the proposed change, including calls from prominent Republican figures and activists, the outcome remains uncertain as the legislative session nears its end. If successful, the shift could have implications for future presidential elections, potentially impacting the overall electoral landscape and outcome. This change’s implications were illustrated in the following hypothetical by CBS News assuming a Trump vs. Biden rematch in 2024:
If Trump secures all the electoral votes he won in the 2020 election and additionally wins Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, states he lost to Biden previously, he would secure 268 electoral votes, needing only 2 more votes to reach 270 and win. On the other hand, if Biden retains the electoral votes he won in 2020, including those from Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, he would be one electoral vote away from winning a second term. In such a scenario, Biden would need to secure the Omaha congressional district in Nebraska (traditionally a swing-vote district) to secure the presidency outright. However, if Trump were to win all of Nebraska's electoral votes, including the swing district in Omaha, the electoral college would deadlock at 269-269, resulting in the election outcome being determined by the Republcian-controlled U.S. House of Representatives.