Baltimore bridge collapse drives “black swan event” conspiracy theories
And: What’s causing rising cancer rates?
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What’s a black swan event?
On March 26, a cargo ship lost power and crashed into the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland, causing it to collapse and plunge into the river. The bodies of two workers have been recovered and four others are presumed dead. The ship issued a mayday call just before the crash, allowing authorities to limit traffic on the bridge before the collision. Video footage shows the ship approaching with black smoke and flickering lights before striking the bridge support, leading to the bridge’s rapid collapse.
In the aftermath of the collapse, false narratives spinning the tragedy into a conspiracy theory have surfaced. Some accounts have called the accident a “black swan event,” a phrase increasingly used in conspiracy theory communities online. The Guardian reports the phrase “was popularized in 2001…to describe unforeseen happenings in the financial world with cascading consequences” and is often used to refer to unforeseen national security events as well. These events, occurring across various domains like business and finance, lack historical precedent for prediction. Despite their severity, such events are difficult to model or anticipate due to their unique and non-repetitive nature.
However, it has been confirmed that the crash and subsequent bridge collapse were an accident, and claims of wrongdoing have been debunked. The federal government has pledged $60 million to help rebuild the bridge as it is an important transportation link and critical to the city’s port economy.
Does everyone have cancer?
Recently, claims that “everyone has cancer” have surfaced and been promoted by influencers like Naomi Wolf. Wolf has become known as a frequent spreader of health-related disinformation, including claims that COVID-19 vaccines are “mass murder.”
While there is a concerning trend of increasing cancer rates in younger adults, studies show a decline in certain cancers among older individuals. The American Cancer Society's Cancer Statistics, 2024 report, published in January, highlighted a significant rise in new cancer cases, surpassing 2 million in 2023 compared to 1.9 million in 2022, despite a decrease in cancer-related deaths. Particularly alarming is the observation that younger adults are experiencing a notable uptick in cancer diagnoses, with incidence rates rising by 1% to 2% annually between 1995 and 2020. Moreover, the report underscores the persistent increase in common cancers such as breast, prostate, endometrial, colorectal, and cervical cancers among younger age groups, with colorectal cancer emerging as the primary cause of cancer mortality in men under 50 and ranking second among women in that demographic. This concerning trajectory, especially evident since the mid-1990s, emphasizes the urgent need for heightened awareness, preventive measures, and targeted interventions to address the escalating burden of cancer among younger populations.
Now, disinformation spreaders like Wolf are capitalizing on stories about rising cancer rates to promote unfounded claims about vaccines and cancer, and to promote the idea that pharmaceutical companies will profit off increased cancer rates. Claims that vaccines are a contributing factor to increases in cancer rates have been repeatedly debunked.